Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Wash, rinse & repeat...

  • Is it just me, or does it look like Israel is starting to fall back on hitting empty buildings, sports stadiums, etc.? Seems like we've been down this road before in 2006.
    The pattern: 1) Israel starts out with an aggressive military response to the terrorists - the goals are somewhat fuzzy, but it does feel cathartic. 2) The terrorists go to ground quickly after taking a minor hit to key forces and weaponry. 3) The Arabs riot in the streets of Europe and across the middle east. 4) Western govts get nervous and turn the screws on Israel to pull back and negotiate and make peace. 5) The media reports it as a humanitarian tragedy story, complete with the pathetic pictures of Palestinian kids, leading to massive pressure on Israel to call it quits. 6) Israel gets nervous and starts doing non-strategic things like flattening empty buildings, to avoid civilian casualties, while trying to figure out what to do next in the face of strong and (to them) unexpected international condemnation. 7) The enemy, seeing that Israel has no real war plan, starts claiming victory, i.e. "survival" in the face of the onslaught of the world's 4th largest army blah blah blah, and uses some of its mostly-untouched forces and armaments, which were, of course, hidden beyond the IDF's reach. 8) Israel calls it off and tells its citizens it won. Everyone knows otherwise.
    We seem to be roughly at stage 6 right now.
    The key ingredient in this repetitive mobius strip of failure is the inability of Israel's government to correctly anticipate the global pressure it will be under to call it off before a successful conclusion. Israel keeps expecting the world to be sympathetic and supportive. Israel is delusional.
    Sorry to take the wind out of the sails of anyone who's pumped up and thinking Israel is on the way to a grand victory. I see Lebanon II unfolding, rapidly.

When Japan attacked Pearl Harbour in December 1941 only a few thousand Americans were killed or wounded but the American aerial bombing of Japan by August 1945 had killed or wounded six million Japanese. Was this a disproportionate response? Japan became a much better country after this Bushido death cult was eliminated. Gaza would be a much better place if Israel is permitted to destroy this Hamas death cult but alas this will not happen.

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